Nightmare on Montlake Part IV

It may seem like we're running out of options to explain the myriad ways the Huskies are losing. But Saturday's 35-28 loss to Stanford is easy to get a handle on: no Jake Locker = no chance. When the sophomore stud QB broke his right thumb in the second quarter while blocking, any chance of UW winning quickly dissipated. Yet they made a game of it, and redshirt freshman QB Ronny Fouch wasn't bad.

Regardless, Washington is 0-4, Locker could be out six weeks and the coaching staff is running out of answers. The calls for coach Willingham's head grow louder, and the opinions on the Seattle Times' Husky blog predictably espouse firing Ty (and hiring Lane Kiffin) or recommend that he do the "honorable thing" and step down. 

If fans want to spew venom at the coaching staff, some of it should go in defensive coordinator Ed Donatell's direction. UW gave up 466 yards to Stanford, a season-high for the Cardinal, and amazingly, the Huskies still don't have a single sack this season. But Donatell is no joke. He was a longtime NFL defensive coordinator and defensive backs coach, including a stint with the Broncos when they won two straight Super Bowls. Maybe he's turned into a terrible coach, or maybe he's dealing with an inexperienced unit that still should have a bright future.

Willingham deserves a mulligan this season. With a brutal non-conference schedule and now dealing with the loss of their leader, the Huskies are living in a bad dream. But kicking out a good recruiter and solid citizen like Willingham under these conditions is not only unfair to him, it could potentially scare away established successors. Think about what it would look like to the rest of the country if UW fired its coach four games into a season that featured three games against top-25 clubs, a terrible excessive celebration penalty and a major injury to its starting QB. UW isn't a top program any more, and the administration can't think they would get top-shelf candidates if the head job were vacant. But the decline started before Willingham got here. Let him see this through and no doubt next year will look a lot better. Besides, UW isn't even the worst team in the state; it's only 54 days till the Apple Cup. 

On Knocking Out Ichiro

Quick thoughts about the story of the week that isn't about bailouts or debates.

1) I like Geoff Baker's stuff. He's got a standing gig on KJR-AM that's a reliably good listen, even for a fair-weather fan like me. And bully for him, getting the story to begin with. But he, or his editor, buried the lede on this one. When you've got a teammate looking to take a swing at the city's most popular pro athlete, and management calling a meeting to cool things off, it at least ought to be mentioned in the subhed. Yes, clubhouse tiffs are a hardy perennial. But this one doesn't belong halfway down a 1,600-word story.

2) Whoever's mad at Ichiro, they haven't made much of a case for it. At least not to Baker.

While Ichiro is said to have recovered from his injury, his stolen-base totals dropped as the season progressed. He also did not get to some balls in the gap and the right-field corner at times, prompting more clubhouse complaints that he cared only about piling up hits instead of sitting out to heal properly.

Since when does playing hurt make you selfish? Brett Favre gets up slowly after a sack and every sportscaster in the country gets in line to give him a reacharound. Besides, who was about to make up for all those hits while Ichiro was sitting out?

Come to think of it, this gives me an idea. I think I'll help out my team at the office by not coming to work on Monday. It's the selfless thing to do.

A Milestone for the Mariners

Yesterday, up three runs in the sixth inning, Riggleman saw the chance to make something of this turdroll of a season, an opportunity to find some meaning in an otherwise wasted year, to achieve something real and important - something his players could look back on with fondness.

Felix was 1/3 of an inning away from pitching 200 innings.

Riggles on this historic milestone: "Some numbers speak volumes: 162 makes a statement. 200 innings makes a statement. There's a difference between 199 2/3 and 200." Amen.

So he left Hernandez in to finish out his 200th inning, and in the process gave up 3 runs. The Angels ultimately won the game and gave us a more meaningul milestone: 100 losses (thanks to John Hickey of the PI for pointing out the 100 loss, 200 inning parallel)

When asked, Ichiro said "I don't know what 100 losses means." Perhaps in an effort to help explain, Raul said "It's like 99 losses. It's like 101 losses. Any of those numbers is terrible." True, Raul, but maybe Ichiro needs a little more help understanding the gravity of this milestone. Let's reflect:

1. The Ms haven't posted 100 losses since 1983. That's a quarter of a century, people. In 1983, Return of the Jedi was ruling movie theaters, Michael Jackson's video for Thriller was released and Apple unveiled something called the Apple Lisa.

2. With a $117 million payroll, that that means we've spent $2,017,241 for each win. Having spent $40 a ticket to witness a few of those wins myself, I'm trying to decide if I'd throw in an extra $2,017,201 to avoid one of the many losses I've suffered. If only there was some way to win games without spending so damn much.

3. With this loss, we managed to edge out San Diego (currently at 61-97) and Washington (currently 59-99) as the first team to break the century mark this season. That's right, Nats, suck it!

4. Flip our record, and we're two games ahead of the Angels. Guess we're better at losing than they are at winning. What losers.

The sun will come out To-Morrow?

The most disappointing thing about the Mariners this season is not the awful record or the unbelievably bad play that earned it, it's the complete lack of creativity and risk taking by management. The team did nothing at the trade deadline. It only cut ties with players that shouldn't have been on the team in the first place. It also waited way too long to turn Brandon Morrow into a starter.

The M's started that process in August and Morrow's first start in early September against the Yankees was amazing. Since dominating the Yankees over 7 innings and holding them to one hit, Morrow has been more like the pitcher we thought we'd get.
Overpowering stuff, lapses in concentration and trouble finding the strike zone.

Including his first start against the Yankees, Morrow has gone 23 innings with a 4.70 ERA, 20Ks and 14 BBs. On the positive side, opposing batters are only hitting .193 against him. That means if Morrow could get his walks under control, he could be a very good pitcher. If, if and more if. So, has the great starter experiment made you feel like Morrow can be a bona-fide frontline pitcher?

He's got a great fastball, nasty breaking stuff and a change-up that is developing. He's no Tim Lincecum, the University of Washington pitcher that the Mariners passed on to draft Morrow, but I think he can be a 10- to 15-game winner with the upside of becoming a very good #2 pitcher.

My main concern is how many miles his arm can take if he is a starter next season. He's only pitched 60 innings in the big leagues and a few more in the minor leagues this season. Morrow's also lost a few weeks to injuries. Most baseball men don't like to increase a young pitcher's workload by more than 10 percent from year to year. Even if you ramp that up to 20 or 25 percent, then it still maxes out around 130 innings. That's just not enough innings to be a reliable starter. It probably means it will be another season split between the bullpen and a starting role.

There will be no answers any time soon, so there is nothing to do except enjoy his last start of the season on Friday against Oakland.

Do what comes naturally....

The Mariners suck, but all is not lost. Not yet. We still have one more thing to root for. It's something more realistic than our preseason expectations for the team.

They are one game ahead in the race for baseball's worst record and the perk that comes with it. This year's prize is Stephen Strasburg, a hard-throwing righty from San Diego State. His stats are staggering. 11-3, 1.57 ERA, 133Ks and 16BBs in 97.1 innings. He carried a no-hitter into the 7th at the Olympics against the Dutch (Yes, I know it's the Dutch) and struck out 23 batters in a game earlier this year.

Drafts in baseball are more of a gamble than in other sports, but this kid is very intriguing. (He throws really hard so there is the possibility of the Mariners putting him in the bullpen for two years and delay his development into being a starter.)

The competition for Strasburg is the Washington Nationals, who gets the tie-breaker advantage because they sucked more last year. The (G)Nats have one more win than the Mariners, who are doing their part with 12 straight losses. The Nats, losers of five straight, close the season with the Marlins at home and the Phillies on the road while the Mariners wrap up with the Angels and Oakland at home.

So, let's root for the Mariners to do what comes naturally to them.

Welcome Back K-Rob

I guess it shows how dire the Seahawks' situation is. Excitement is building over the re-signing of a former first-round draft choice who washed out in a sea of booze and bad behavior. But here Seattle is welcoming Koren Robinson back into the fold. No doubt he's a talented guy; before he hit the skids, Robinson put up nice numbers in his sophomore season of 2002: 78 catches, 1,240 yards and 5 TDs. But Mike Holmgren eventually tired of his antics and released Robinson after the '04 season. He caught on with the Vikings and made the Pro Bowl as a returner in '05, but then had a DUI there and was cut again. However, Robinson says he's been sober for two years, despite spending most of that time in Green Bay, a place Bill Simmons noted (in a September 15, 2006 column) might not have been the best fit for him:

The Packers were crushed at home by Chicago, then decided it would be a good
idea to sign Koren Robinson ... a guy who's struggled with drinking problems
over the course of his career. Now he gets to live in a city where there's
nothing to do, there's no black people and everyone loves to drink and eat
bad food? Is this signing sponsored by Bad Idea Jeans? Normally I wear
protection, but then I thought, "When am I gonna make it back to Haiti?"

Seriously, I hope the guy has kicked his habit. Professionally, there's no doubt he can contribute to the team, and soon. The Hawks have more injured wide receivers than most teams have on a roster: Deion Branch, Nate Burleson, Bobby Engram, Logan Payne, Seneca Wallace, Ben Obomanu and Paul Skansi. Seattle also acquired Keary Colbert, who has been generally underwhelming since coming out of USC. But throwing to two guys with some experience is preferable to throwing it to...well, whoever Matt Hasselbeck has been trying to throw to. Through two games, he's completed fewer than half his passes and he may have a more serious back problem than he's letting on. Robinson's signing came with Hasselbeck's blessing.

But the Seahawks' problems go far beyond the passing game. Their defense, thought to be stout coming into the season, was gashed by the 49ers in their 33-30 overtime loss. They couldn't stop or contain dangerous UC-Davis product J.T. O'Sullivan. In the process, he became the first Niners passer to throw for 300+ yards in four years (somewhere Tim Rattay is sticking pins in his J.T. O'Sullivan doll). The D also squandered a 14-point lead and couldn't get the stops they needed. Way to waste an 8-sack day.

What the Seahawks did find in this game is a ground attack. Julius Jones rushed for 127 yards, Leonard Weaver had a few good runs and T.J. Duckett bulled his way into the end zone in a most un-Shaun-Alexander-like fashion. Plus, Seattle plays in the Sun Belt Conference of the NFL. They should get healthy this weekend on the Rams, who at this point probably couldn't beat their former cross-town rival, the USC Trojans.

Still, as Mike Holmgren is about to leave Seattle, there may be a changing of the guard in the NFC West. This is roughly the 18th straight year pundits have predicted the Cardinals would finally rise from the ashes, but it might REALLY be happening in Phoenix this time. They're 2-0, Kurt Warner had a perfect passer rating against the Dolphins and the defense looks good.

The Seahawks haven't had to look up in the standings in years, so this is new for most of the team. It's not panic time, but in his last season can Holmgren adapt to what's happening? Can he emphasize the running game over the West Coast tendency to pass, at least until reinforcements in the wide receiver corps arrive? Can future coach Jim Mora get the defense to buckle down? Can those two get along enough and unite the team? If not, it's going to take a lot more than K-Rob to turn things around.

The Worst Is Over

A national championship contender from a tradion-steeped Midwestern program visits the West Coast, in what turns out to be a blowout. USC-Ohio State? Of course not. We're talking about a battle played deep in that game's shadows, surely seen by dozens of viewers on ESPN. They saw Oklahoma ruin a beautiful afternoon at Husky Stadium, crushing Washington 55-14. UW's same old problems cropped up: poor tackling, dropped and airmailed passes and a frightening 591 yards given up. Now the Huskies are 0-3 and staring at the abyss, with chants for the coach's head growing louder. But really, this is a script anyone could have seen coming, so let's not get rash.

I heard a radio caller on the Huskies postgame show say that the Huskies were more poorly coached than mighty Bellevue in their victory over Bothell. That's Bellevue High School. Really, is this what things are coming to? Now "fans" are calling in to say Tyrone Willingham couldn't even outclass his opposite number on a high school sideline? People need to get a goddamn grip.

This is where we step away from the ledge. Everyone knew the Huskies' first three games were an unholy trilogy that would probably leave them winless. Those three opponents -- Oregon, BYU, and Oklahoma -- are ranked 17, 14 and 2, respectively. Yes, UW took a step back after last week's hearbreaker, but OU is going to make a lot of teams look foolish this year. And if it's possible for a team to take refuge in its conference schedule -- because it's so much easier than its non-conference slate -- then the Huskies can be that team.

UW has a bye week, then plays three of its next four games at home: Stanford, at Arizona, Oregon State and Notre Dame. All of those are winnable. Suddenly, the Pac-10 looks very weak. The conference went 3-7 against non-league foes on Saturday, lowlighted by inexplicable losses by Cal-Berkeley to Maryland, Arizona State to UNLV and Arizona to New Mexico. UCLA, thought to be resurgent under Ricky Neuheisel after an upset of Tennessee, got whacked by 59 points to a BYU team UW took to overtime last weekend -- oh sorry, I forgot. Aside from USC and Oregon, the Pac-10 now appears filled with teases, have-nots and never-will-be's.

Conventional wisdom said Willingham needed to make a bowl this year to save his job. So UW would have to go 6-3 onward to get there. That looks unlikely, but fans need to use a different ruler to measure success from here on out. Let's see how hard this young team plays for its coach. If they still put up a fight and are consistently competitive, then Willingham deserves a chance to keep coaching his talented charges. If they roll over and die and go 0-12, then we'll talk. But if that happens, impatience dictates that Willingham would be long gone by then.