As I type, the Mariners are winning, 3-0, which suggests that tonight's loss will be more the come-from-behind heartbreaking kind than the humiliating annihilation kind. Hope springs eternal, of course--and it's only May--but let's face it: at 18-34, the M's hope already lies in 2009.
The good news is that the M's are stocked--not with talent, but with plenty of untalented guys whom contending teams with GMs who lack courage and imagination will trade for talent. Bavasi is not the only stupid one. So if the M's fire him soon enough, they have the resources to fleece the marginally smarter peers he'll leave behind.
So, what are the options?
The guys who should generate some interest are Adrian, Batista, Raul, and Washburn.
Adrian is tough. On the one hand, he'll get a real blue chip prospect in return. He's a legitimate star, and he's under (relatively cheap) contract for just one more year. On the other hand, he's only 29, so he'll be in his prime over the life of his next contract, and he can help anchor a rebuilding team. It depends, then, on some factors we can only speculate about: Does he want to re-sign with the M's, and how much will it cost them?
No reason to consider keeping the other guys.
I love Raul as much as anybody, but he's 36 and ready to start sucking. Unlike Beltre, he can't be a part of a winning formula over the next five years. And his fielding is a goddamn disgrace that makes me want to papercut my eyelids so I can't see it through the blood. Besides, Raul's a free agent after the season, so the M's can try to re-sign him. He's not going to fetch the kind of talent that Beltre would, but he's on his usual .280/25/100 pace, and that'll look good to a team that needs a bat.
Batista and Washburn are classic deadline deal fodder: midding pitchers with the potential to be middling-plus, each signed to relatively reasonable contracts for just one more year. Neither one is a star, but the key to doing well at the deadline is prying good prospects from pitching-desperate teams for the likes of Jeff Suppan (Freddy Sanchez).
If you keep Beltre and ship Raul, Batista, and Washburn at the deadline, you save $17 million for next year and you get three or four serviceable players, and maybe one or two that could make a real impression. You have to fill out the back of the rotation next off-season, but Batista and Washburn aren't a part of anybody's future plans (unless their future plans are to suck), so why not try out some youngsters?
In other exciting news for 2009, No. More. Richie. Sexson.
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Deadline deals will only be possible if Bavasi is gone. Not just because he has an awful track records in trades, but I just don't see Bavasi signing his own death certificate with a fire sale that basically confirms that this season has been a disaster.
Assuming that Bavasi is gone, I think you identified the three potential trading chips. Washburn, Batista and Ibanez are the only ones with any remote value. Beltre isn't going anywhere. I just don't see the Mariners getting much talent for those guys. You have to root for a young team like Tampa Bay or Florida to remain competitive because they are the ones with deep minor league talent.
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